Mayweathervs Pacquiao Predition(s)

It’s not in my nature to write predictions but I figured why not for this one. I decided to predict how this fight would play out based on Manny’s most recent fight with Chris Algieri and Mayweather’s rematch with Marcos Maidiana. I did this for two real reasons.   

One: It’s easier. I’ve been watching Money and PacMan since ’98 and ’03 respectively and to consider all of their achievements and abilities is just far too time consuming and too long of a read for today.
Two: While fighters became who they are based on past opponents what I believe tells us more about these two is how they both looked and behaved in their most recent outings. Of course we can talk about how they looked before but many of our arguments will come from nearly a decade ago. Like it or not 2007 Money and 2009 Manny are not fighting each other but the 2015 versions of themselves.
 

So without further ado here goes nothing!

Round 1: Both fighters will begin very cautiously for the first minute. Floyd will get into his offensive stance and throw the jab while leaning hoping to lure Paquiao into being the aggressor. Paquiao will oblige and come in with his double jab trying to set up the left.  Neither fighter will do too much of consequence in the eyes of the fans or commentators but they have already laid the ground work for their game plans.

Round 2: Money will shift to being defensive and use his footwork to force Pac man chase him. Floyd will attempt to dodge Manny’s left and tuck underneath the right but will get caught with the first meaningful punch which will convince Floyd to remain distant and continue circling.

Round 3: By now Manny will no longer pursue he will remain patient and force Mayweather to engage. Floyd will cautiously oblige and land a few big shots first to the left side of the body and follow up with a straight right. Manny will not be hurt but will attempt to fire back in which Money will counter and continue to work the body.

Round 4: Still cautious Floyd will begin to adjust into going on the offensive. Manny will throw the left and catch Floyd forcing Floyd to initiate a clinch. Manny will remain calm and wait for Kenny Bayless to break them up. Floyd will attempt to do this on several occasions and Manny will allow it as Manny feels he hasn’t put Floyd in enough danger to clinch out of necessity.

Round 5: Manny will attempt to impose his will as he did in the previous round. Floyd will lie against the ropes and lure Manny into throwing combinations. Bayless will break them up and Floyd will go back to the ropes hoping to set up the check hook. Only after taking a few hard shots to the face he will succeed and turn so that Manny is on the ropes, Floyd will throw a few of his own and let Manny out of the corner.

Round 6: Where most of the fifth took place on the ropes much of this round will be in the center of the ring. Floyd will start out stationary with a high guard. Manny will come forward and throw several flurries that will go mostly blocked. As Manny goes in a second time a clinch will occur and then Floyd will begin to move around again. He will slip some of Manny’s punches and throw a looping jab immediately followed by the straight right connecting and visually backing up Manny.

Round 7:  Floyd will spend much of this round laying back and moving. Manny will capitalize on this and land a few punctuating shots of his own to which Floyd will smile in acknowledgment of Pac man’s power and connection.

Round 8: Manny will come out again hoping to do damage however Floyd will change the pace of the round by Mann’s double jab with a hard punch to the chest. Manny will attempt to readjust but Floyd will take this opportunity to go on the offensive and land some body shots of his own. As Manny’s guard comes down to block the body Floyd will hammer Manny’s head with a looping right hand.

Round 9: Manny will come out cautiously but will find Floyd unwilling to engage. As Floyd begins to move back Pacquiao will bang a hard jab pushing Floyd off balance and into the ropes.  Paqcuiao will attempt to punish Floyd along the ropes but his assault will be short lived as Bayless separates the two.

Round 10: Finding Pac Man more stationary Floyd will move in and out hitting Manny with pot shots around Manny’s high guard. Floyd will throw an uppercut between the guard that will rock Manny’s head. As the action moves off of the ropes Manny and Floyd will have an accidental clash of heads busting Floyd’s lip. Floyd will be visually unsettled but maintain control of the round by clinching.

Round 11: Having his lip cleaned Floyd will continue wiping his lip but will attempt to even up the score by throwing combos of three or four rather than the one twos he prefers. The second half of the round will go to Manny as he will continue to attack after Floyd’s offensive was unable to stop the Filipino.

Round 12: The two will touch gloves having earned one another’s respect and will both attempt to put the finishing touches on the fight, Floyd will spend much of the round moving while Pac Man pursues. In the last minute Floyd will attempt to steal the round with a few crisp shots of his own

 The fight will be called a Majority Decision for Mayweather with a one card calling it a draw.

Disclaimer
This is my prediction solely based on these to fighters’ most recent matches with Algieri and Maidana. As a fan though I think the fight will depend on Manny’s power and Floyd’s mind frame. When Floyd tastes Manny’s power he will decide if the fight can be competitive. If Floyd decides to stick to being out of range and reluctant to fire, expect that Floyd realized Manny’s power is real. Floyd may pull off the win but it is unlikely as many will see him as running the entire fight. Floyd’s mind will also play a big part in his performance. Floyd was visibly distracted in the second Maidana fight; if the same distractions are present then Floyd will not be the same fighter. He will be given problems all night long and possibly even get bulldozed by Manny.
 However if Floyd comes in the right mind and is unfazed I expect Mayweather to throw looping shots around Manny’s high guard starting in round three or four.  He will find his rhythm and hammer Pacquiao with counter punches throughout and possibly even lead to a late round stoppage. My guess between round 9 and more likely 11.